Kempton analysis for 3rd of March, be lucky everyone 👌

Kempton

6.00 cavolo Nero, his all-weather form reads 3 runs a win and 2 Places, last time out at Lingfield he finished 3rd beaten a length and a quarter but I think the long straight here will suit better than Lingfield as he takes a bit of winding up to get into top flight, he was doing all his best work at the finish with the first time cheek pieces applied and they're retained here. I did manage to get him at Goodwood aswel last year and I do think there's improvement to come as a lightly raced 4yr old.

He's had a 162 days off but he won first time out last year on the 14th of January. James Ferguson has been in good form throughout February with 4 winners from just 10 runners so a 40% strike rate and

Cavolo is entered twice so I'm assuming the yard a quite hopeful. Most of these horses have been running all winter and you'd think with improvement likely for cavolo if he was around the 5s mark he'd be worth a chance.

8.00 Naval tribute and Kurious lady

Are the 2 that interest me first time in a handicap, both stepped up 3 furlongs from a mile to a mile 3f and both looked to be doing their best work at the finish, naval from an un promising position out the back but definitely caught the eye finishing with running left in him and staying on with purpose and kurious seemed to get tapped for toe a bit in the final 1.5 furlongs but was staying on asif the step up would suit her aswel.

I'd want to see market strength before the off but if I was to take a small risk on one of them it would be Naval tribute as he caught my eye the most, although beaten a long way this step up in trip will suit and the pieces are on first time. He's forecast to be 12s but I'd be surprised and is more likely to be around 8s.

Jodhpur blue is the obvious one if neither of the first time handicappers live up to expectations.

8.30 Vitalline, last time he won was at this course in December and we were on.. back at this track and with a forecast good pace to aim at if he was around the forecast 9/2 he'd have a small chance back in a classified.