Newcastle and Southwell analysis for 11th of March.

FIRST OFF I’D LIKE TO THANK SOME OF YOU FOR THE SUPPORT WE’VE BEEN RECEIVING IN THE WAY OF DONATIONS, PARTICULARLY WHEN THE ANALYSIS HAS BEEN LANDING AS IT HAS FOR THE LAST 6 WEEKS. TO BE FAIR, APART FROM JANUARY, IT’S BEEN GOOD FOR EVERYONE FOR 6 MONTHS SINCE WE STARTED THE PAGE.

WITHOUT YOUR SUPPORT NONE OF THIS WOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE, AND WHEN WE GET A WINNER OR WINNERS ALL DONATIONS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

THERE IS A DONATE BUTTON ON THE MAIN PAGE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DONATION WHEN YOU HAVE A WIN AND YOU WANT THE ANALYSIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE FLAT SEASON IS UPON US AND WE’RE LOOKING FORWARD TO UNEARTHING SOME MORE JUICY PRICES. WE THANK YOU IN ADVANCE AND BE LUCKY EVERYONE! 👌 👍

Newcastle

5.30 Angelardo as a lightly raced 4yr with only 6 starts to his name he could potentially improve for the step up in trip having stayed on to some effect over 12f the last twice at Southwell and here at Newcastle and in each of those races he hit mid race flat spots and was outpaced before staying on in the final furlong and looking like the step up would suit.

He's clearly no world beater but if he's 5/1 as forecast I'd take a chance that the step up in trip will see him in a better light. And if he's priced reasonably you could even play ew if that's your preference.

6.30 hilltop beat party bear last time they met at Southwell in January and hilltop gave party 3lb. Tomorrow party gives hilltop a 1lb so is 4lb better off for beating her that day.

I'm not sure so far Newcastle has be a happy hunting ground for party bear either well beaten both times but there were circumstances which might have put paid to her chances. She was badly chopped up on the rail when making her challenge here over cd in may last year so easy to give that as an excuse. And 2 starts back in a cd 4 runner fillies race there was no pace and she was keen making all and fell out the back of the TV. The problem is there's no forecast pace in this 5 runner race either so will she settle is the question. At the forecast prices it would seem hilltop could be best equipped for this test and is better off with party bear as well. If hilltop was 4/1 she might be worth a small play as I'm not suggesting she's some good thing but might be value and that's what my analysis has come up with. I wouldn't play any shorter than 4s as she has to be value.

Southwell

5.05 River wharfe and Rambuso creek I would potentially Dutch the pair if they were at their forecast price of 8/1.

They both ran against each other last time out at wolves where both were hung out the back and both could have finished closer with clear runs. River was travelling very well and was repeatedly blocked for a run all the way down the final furlong, and Rambuso was blocked at the final furlong pole and had to switch out wide then finished with a wet sail. Both are reasonably handicapped/ below their last winning marks and the long straight here and wide expanse will hopefully give them a chance to open up.

It's all about price though 8/1 the pair would be fair. I don't think either warrant being much shorter if you're playing for value.